Wooly potty?

Today many think the mere appearance of the woolly caterpillar is a prediction of a harsh winter. We forget if the orange rings mean a long or short winter. The legend dates back to the Native American Indians who taught colonists about the woolly bear caterpillar's ability to presage the winter weather. In the the article, “Woolly Bear Caterpillars: Weather Predictors?” in the 1999 Old Farmer's Almanac, the real tradition is that more and wider rusty orange segments on the woolly bear caterpillar predict a winter that will be less severe than usual. If the orange rings are thin or few, the winter will be harsh.

Whatever.

I am reminded of a story about the young man who became chief of his tribe after the death of his uncle. The uncle had been famous for his accurate predictions about the severity of upcoming winters, and the tribe had always followed his advice about how much preparation they needed to make in the months prior to the onset of the cold. As a result, they had prospered.

The nephew, because he had not expected to become chief, had not learned how to predict the winter in the traditional ways and instead had obtained an MBA from Harvard. He had expected to live out his days as an accountant at the tribal casino.

But that was not to be.

So when the first September rolled around, he did what any modern young man would do -- he contacted the local office of the National Weather Service. They explained that all indications were for an average winter ahead.

The young chief returned to his people with the good news, but because of his business training, he knew the importance of putting in a disclaimer. So he decided to hedge his bets a bit by saying that the coming winter, while not harsh, would be a bit worse than usual. As a result, the members of the tribe began to store up more firewood and to lay in more canned goods.

A few weeks later, tribal elders came to the chief to see if he had any more details. He told them he would consult the Great Spirit and get back to them.

This time when he called the Weather Service, they said that it was beginning to look like the winter might be a bit more severe than they had expected, but nothing to be too worried about.

Hedging his bets again, the chief told the elders that now the Great Spirit and all the signs of nature indicated that winter might be middling bad. So they went back with this message and all the people chopped more firewood, canned more vegetables and starting buying up heavier blankets at the local shops.

In late October, the elders returned, a bit concerned now because it was beginning to look like there would be a shortage of food and perhaps even of firewood. There were no blankets left to be had in the area. The chief wiped the sweat from his forehead when he heard this, and promised to see what he could learn.

This time when he called the Weather Service, he was agitated by their message: It looked like it might be a record cold winter.

"Look, guys," he said. "In early September you told me the winter would be nothing big. Then you said it was going to be middling. Now you are predicting record low temperatures and blizzards. What happened to change your earlier forecast?"

There was along pause on the other end of the line and then an embarrassed voice said, "Well, this is just between you and me, okay? Our equipment and computer models still all say it will be a mild winter. But for some reason the local tribes have been putting up food and firewood and buying up blankets like mad, and we figure they must know something we don't know!"
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Why do I say this? The cats seem to have begun using their litter boxes weeks earlier than usual this year. They normally are happy to poop and scoop outside until later in the fall, but they have been doing their business inside for the past couple of weeks. I don't know if they have been consulting the weather service or if -- more likely -- they have just decided it is more convenient to use the indoor plumbing.

But you may want to lay in a supply of blankets.